US Fed Hawkish Remarks LME Zinc Center Shifts Down [SMM Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM November 17 Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes
Futures: Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3,043.5/mt, briefly rose to a high of $3,051/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward during the night session to a low of $2,998/mt as bulls reduced positions, finally closing down at $3,014.5/mt, down $26/mt or 0.86%, with trading volume increasing to 16,944 lots and open interest falling by 716 lots to 228,000 lots. Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2512 contract opened at 22,460 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 22,385 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated upward to a high of 22,495 yuan/mt by the end of the session as bears reduced positions, finally closing up at 22,485 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt or 0.27%, with trading volume falling to 48,639 lots and open interest dropping by 3,237 lots to 96,916 lots.
Macro:
US Fed officials Logan and Schmid issued strong hawkish signals again; Trump purchased at least $82 million in bonds within over a month; UK Chancellor abandoned plans to raise income tax; Russia's Novorossiysk port resumed oil loading operations; the central bank conducted 800 billion yuan in outright reverse repo operations on Monday; four ministries issued a document strictly controlling the export of new cars under the name of used cars; Yuyuan Tantian: China is prepared to implement substantive countermeasures against Japan.
Shanghai: Last Friday, the refined zinc procurement sentiment in Shanghai was 2.45, and the sales sentiment was 2.41. The futures market fell WoW in the morning, downstream enterprises placed buy orders at lower prices, spot transactions performed relatively well last Friday, market traders also actively sold goods, and overall spot premiums continued to rise.
Guangdong: Last Friday, the refined zinc procurement sentiment in Guangdong was 2.28, and the sales sentiment was 2.27. Overall, zinc prices fell last Friday, downstream procurement enthusiasm increased, market buy orders rose, spot transactions improved slightly, while the price spread between futures contracts narrowed WoW, and spot premiums and discounts rose.
Tianjin: Last Friday, the refined zinc procurement sentiment in Tianjin was 2.31, and the sales sentiment was 2.41. Zinc prices pulled back last Friday, coinciding with weekend stockpiling, downstream enterprises placed more buy orders at lower prices, while traders held prices firm, prices rose slightly, and overall market transactions improved WoW from Thursday.
Ningbo: Spot quotations in the Ningbo market were chaotic, traders had significant differences, but overall spot premiums continued to rise WoW, downstream enterprises placed many buy orders in the morning, and spot transaction performance was moderate.
Social inventory: On November 14, LME zinc inventory increased by 1,175 mt or 3.11% to 38,975 mt; according to SMM communication, as of November 13, the total zinc ingot inventory in seven SMM regions was 157,900 mt, down 800 mt from November 6 and down 1,700 mt from November 10, domestic inventory decreased.
Zinc Price Forecast: Last Friday, the LME zinc recorded a large bearish candlestick. Hawkish remarks from US Fed officials triggered market selling sentiment, interest rate cut expectations weakened, and small-scale shipments to LME delivery warehouses alleviated concerns over low inventory, causing the LME zinc center to shift downward. LME zinc is expected to be in the doldrums today. Last Friday, SHFE zinc recorded a long lower shadow bullish candlestick. Although macro factors fell short of expectations, from a fundamental perspective, domestic and imported zinc concentrates TC continued to decline, smelter production cuts are still expected, coupled with continuous zinc ingot exports, fundamental support remains strong, leading to a rise in SHFE zinc. SHFE zinc is expected to fluctuate at highs today.
Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.